That time of year

It’s that time of year for forecasters to rejoice in the opportunity to produce forecasts for the year ahead. Economists like Christmas – it brings the gift of a spotlight for their year ahead projections. However, when those economic growth forecasts start landing in your inbox, it might be worth keeping the following simple charts in mind.

We look here at the US market (simply because it is the heartbeat of the market overall and is so influential, but the analysis holds equally elsewhere) and the annual relationship between the growth rate of the economy and the return on the S&P 500.

Chart 1 shows the annual nominal return for the S&P 500 from 1990 onward plotted against the annual nominal rate of growth in US GDP.

Quite strikingly, there is absolutely no relationship at all between annual nominal US growth and annual nominal US equity returns (look at those coefficients, zeroes everywhere).


Let us torture the data a little to see if we can squeeze something useful from it. Chart 2 shows the annual rate of growth of real US GDP plotted against annual nominal US equity returns.

No change, still irrelevant. Where the economy goes the market does not follow.


So, with that in mind, perhaps it is time to give your economist a break this year. Not surprisingly, we will not be winging our economic growth forecasts to your inbox.

It’s not the economy, stupid.

P.S. Here is the same chart for the UK.