Inflation and how persistent it is, now fascinates us although we will skip how that relates to US bond yields, as that currently makes no sense. We’re also pondering the recent high performance from non-US markets. We signaled inflation as a forthcoming problem well over a year ago, and slightly oddly not for either of… Continue reading Inflation: The elephant in the room?
A brief glance at an excellent first half for investors: thoroughly “risk on” for the first quarter, but a slower but still an upward grind thereafter. Not that such arbitrary dates matter. What does count is what can make it kick on from here? Covid patterns So, first a glance at COVID, or rather our… Continue reading ALL QUIET: Covid and UK Property
WHEN WILL MARKETS RESPOND? Everything is in the end politics; it just takes a long route on occasion and rather like a frog in water, markets take time to realize that the pleasant feeling of warmth is a prelude to being boiled alive. We are well into the boiling phase, but how long before it… Continue reading A HARD RAIN
UK elections are over – and the US employment numbers are out. What will labour now do, and what is the likelihood that the US market is overvalued? A fortnightly review by Charles Gillams, Monogram Investment Management Ltd.
Everything seems fine in markets for now, both here in the UK and in the US; rather than speculating about what will stop this excellent run for investors, let us have a look at domestic politics to end the month. Sadly, David Cameron seems to have attracted ire. I have heard him called a born… Continue reading What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
Easter neatly finishes off the first quarter too, how is the world doing? A mixed bag really, although for many of us, perhaps better than we expected. MERKEL AND MACRON MIGHT BE RIGHT Although I am afraid, we have moved from the tub-thumping section on the Astra Zeneca vaccine, into more of the dry analytical… Continue reading END OF TERM REPORT
First published on 20 December 2020 A strange old year winds down, with proof once more of the exceptional power of suggestion and the great strength of cohesion. Tired Markets, Bullish Investors So what now? Clearly markets are tired, we have the odd position that investors are almost universally bullish on next year, that fund… Continue reading What doesn’t sink me makes me stronger
First posted on 10th January 2021 Attempting to comment on the last few weeks seems largely futile, save perhaps for the apocryphal remark attributed to Chinese premier Chou En Lai, that ‘it is too early to tell’, when asked about the impact of the French Revolution. We suspect the markets are a little too relaxed… Continue reading MUST THE POOR BE CLEAN?
First posted in January 24 2021 There are a few investment quandaries this week. The first, tactical, one is that while we largely think we, (along with most market participants) ‘know’ that markets are going up this year, we can’t overcome the feeling that this is somehow wrong. It is of course the difficulty in… Continue reading A Startling Infinity Pool
First posted on 7th February 2021 US Markets: The ‘no-Trump’ response We may learn a little about markets from the curious absence of Trump. We had been confidently told that without him the US stock markets would fold, and as US markets collapse, these days so do global ones. Indeed, not just relying on the… Continue reading Some Big Calls