Easter neatly finishes off the first quarter too, how is the world doing? A mixed bag really, although for many of us, perhaps better than we expected. MERKEL AND MACRON MIGHT BE RIGHT Although I am afraid, we have moved from the tub-thumping section on the Astra Zeneca vaccine, into more of the dry analytical… Continue reading END OF TERM REPORT
First published on 20 December 2020 A strange old year winds down, with proof once more of the exceptional power of suggestion and the great strength of cohesion. Tired Markets, Bullish Investors So what now? Clearly markets are tired, we have the odd position that investors are almost universally bullish on next year, that fund… Continue reading What doesn’t sink me makes me stronger
First posted on 10th January 2021 Attempting to comment on the last few weeks seems largely futile, save perhaps for the apocryphal remark attributed to Chinese premier Chou En Lai, that ‘it is too early to tell’, when asked about the impact of the French Revolution. We suspect the markets are a little too relaxed… Continue reading MUST THE POOR BE CLEAN?
First posted in January 24 2021 There are a few investment quandaries this week. The first, tactical, one is that while we largely think we, (along with most market participants) ‘know’ that markets are going up this year, we can’t overcome the feeling that this is somehow wrong. It is of course the difficulty in… Continue reading A Startling Infinity Pool
First posted on 7th February 2021 US Markets: The ‘no-Trump’ response We may learn a little about markets from the curious absence of Trump. We had been confidently told that without him the US stock markets would fold, and as US markets collapse, these days so do global ones. Indeed, not just relying on the… Continue reading Some Big Calls
First published on 21st February 2021 As stock markets seem to hit a pause, the implication is either that they are too richly valued, so the marginal client will not buy, (perhaps the Tesla case), or that everyone who wants to buy has already done so, so there is no demand at any higher price,… Continue reading Time to Plunge into the Property Sector?
First Posted on 7th March 2021 WHY SYSTEMS FAIL, AND IT IS REALLY NOT ABOUT MONEY A winter lockdown forces us all to examine our domestic interiors, with in my case perhaps a superfluity of paper, which led me to “Fiasco”, by Thomas E. Ricks. It is a seminal description of how complex systems create… Continue reading Fiasco
First posted 21st March 2021 Interesting times. Bond markets are out of the cage, off the deck, ready to rumble. This week feels like another one of those big calls that investors have faced over the last year, and in many ways much less obvious. Forget the chatter, it is the bond markets that are… Continue reading Rising Tides