Jerome K Wiley?

We do think Powell is running off a cliff, just not the one the market assumes. As we endured the wettest February since (at least) 1836, when William Lamb was prime minister, and the wettest Tory government since records began, is there any chance of dryer times?

But first the tiresome tango of rate rises, the market swept to and fro, nation by nation, until the firm stamp of a well-heeled bond whips the whole mass back round again.

Bailey of the BoE, and Powell of the Fed

So, this week it is to be Bailey first out the gate, FTSE up, bond yields down, next week who knows? That rates will fall this year is the only certainty and the big US markets have built a near vertical climb out of that snippet. But you will note, not in rate sensitive stocks, the Russell (small cap) is still pretty flat, weighed down by the regional banks that dominate it.

And Powell, he’s guessing or as he calls it is “data dependent”, but for all that he is pretty happy projecting those guesses forward. So, he has moved from three rate cuts this year, to a new position of ?  Well - three rate cuts this year. Not much data dependency there.

Before long he will run out of “this year”, because the inflation numbers are not behaving, nor critically is the oil price.  Like Bailey in the UK, he is desperate to cut and under heavy political pressure to do so, both have said 2% inflation is not now needed, just moves in the right direction.

I feel the only thing that can get us there is a sudden (and indeed overdue) drop in the energy price, which we do expect in the summer, but who knows? It has held up rather well so far.

So, at the moment, Powell is perhaps  running on thin air. Protectionism and vote buying fiscal measures mean he can’t get there without some other help.

Markets are supercharged – is it sustainable though?

And if rate cuts are what has supercharged markets in the US, I don’t see that as sustainable right through the year. It might instead be the possibility of a more market friendly, fiscally prudent, Trump, which would be more logical, in some ways; but that still feels implausible.

Nor do I see, as yet, many other markets joining in. Partly, why own anything else but the NASDAQ? Some markets have moved (Germany, Japan) but you could also argue that was after being oversold for too long. While the Swiss have cut rates, it is in part (as ever) to restrain their currency, I am less sure others will want to move ahead of the US.

They may be forced to, but there again their scope before European and UK elections looks limited. And some parts of the market, like UK smaller companies and many REITs (and some renewables) are not signalling anything but yet more damage and destruction, from suspect refinancing at high rates and over optimism on revenue.

Air Cushions

It was notable too how keen Powell is to slow the tightening imposed by reducing the Federal Reserve bond holdings, which has to date been done at a fairly brisk pace. He now talks of stabilising holdings, (in other words resuming bond buying, stopping the runoff of expired holdings) at what seems a high level, for fear of taking too much liquidity out of the system.

Periods of quantitative easing and quantitative tightening of the US federal reserve

From this explanatory article on the process by the Richmond Fed.

For a while rates and reserve sales were working as one against inflation, but not for much longer it seems. Which should be good for bitcoin and other liquidity consuming monsters, if nothing else.

Who is Next in the UK?

The interesting Tory battle is between the Official wing, now entrenched in power, and showing no sign of intelligent life, beyond wanting to “make a good fist of it” in the inevitable electoral defeat. Then there is the Rebel wing, keen to cause trouble, break things, get popular support, or be nasty, if it gets them attention. Although the Official wing regards this as disloyal, it follows an old pattern. It is not just about this particular bunch: see this paper.

Faced with a like quandary under Blair, the Tory party swung left, towards the centre and power, just as Gordon Brown started the decade long Labour march to irrelevance. The Official assumption is that will work again, although the alternative scenario is that Starmer settles down in the centre for the long haul, and the Rebel wing, kept securely away from power, withers for lack of a structure.

But all ruling parties were, by definition, rebels once.

Back in 1836, William Lamb was an unsuccessful politician, wrapped around by Peel, sent to the House of Lords, then brought back as a centrist Prime Minister, and being generally useless, was turfed out again, after naming an Australian city, en route. One must hope for no repeats from history.

William Lamb, Lord Melbourne – from this site

It does not feel time for compromise candidates, nor will a ‘safe pair of hands’ do. Rishi is in a fight.

Meanwhile the fields here feel like salt marshes, dark water lurking in deep cracks, the lips of which slide into clay and suck at the soles of your feet. We certainly could do with some heat.

I do expect this run in markets to go on, but the upside in the big US indices looks more limited and broader participation elsewhere will await those rate cuts. Both their size and speed have a capacity to disappoint, especially when they are so hotly anticipated.

The politics, a long time coming, may become more influential. It could get choppy.

We will take an Easter break, after what feels like a long spring.

And return with the sun (we hope) on 14th April.

 


a hand shuffling cards, with a background of a graph showing stock market movements

Sleight of Hand

This week, we speculate as to what the FCA is really after in their Practitioner Survey.  How closely do their actions follow their words, with the new Consumer Duty laws? And we also look at Hunt’s budget and the likely forthcoming non-impact on stock markets.

FED UP FEEDBACK

Periodically member firms get quizzed on how we see the FCA; this time they promised a shorter form. Well, if that’s shorter, I’d hate to see the long one. Take a look here. Thirty-nine questions, but so many cover multiple topics, it feels more like a hundred.

It is typical of such surveys designed by marketing advisors: a few soft questions, how are you today type guff, a few “have you stopped beating your wife” ones, just to check you are actually awake, then a lot of navel gazing on SICGO. They really despise it.

This is purportedly about promoting competition. Which actually makes the regulator’s job harder – encouraging more firms and lowering the barriers to entry for new firms.  The FCA does not like that idea much; so, note, it is a SECONDARY International Competitiveness and Growth OBJECTIVE, get the Secondary stress, minor, icing on the cake stuff. Objective, so just an aspiration, not real. Their minutes (above) even admit that.

Then we have more ‘are you happy questions’, then some tiresome back scratching ones, just how great are we at seminars? answering the phone? sending you flowers? You get the picture.

Then a few global ones, how good are we at promoting world peace and intergalactic harmony? By this stage you are probably wondering what this is, I am. And the idea creeps in that it is nothing to do with the poor regulated mugs, anyhow. So probably not much to do with the consumer either.

Meanwhile I see a landscape of poor consumer outcomes, vast sales driven peddlers of half-truths, a fair bit of market abuse, absurd barriers to entry, the insiders and regulators getting fat, the savers, investors and users of capital paying for it all.

NEW LAW OLD RULES

They also published “A new Consumer Duty Feedback to CP21/36 and final rules” more terribly exciting stuff, a mere 70 pages of it. They make much of the “Risk of Retrospection”, saying “we were clear that the Duty would not have retrospective effect and would not apply to past actions by firms”.

OK, this is a key political input; the industry has had enough of new rules, looking back. So, I take it that we won’t see big attacks on UK listed finance firms this time?

Not so, you guessed it, the entire financial sector is suddenly seeing bigger provisions, because, it seems, of the new rules. It looks very much like the damaging hits on SJP Close, Lloyds, are exactly this, retrospective application of laws, an action so vociferously foresworn by the regulator.

And this helps competition how? Well not at all. But do remember it is a secondary aim and applies only to “competition in the interests of consumers” so not real competition, but one where the mechanism (competition) and the outcome (interests of consumers) get muddled up.

So, for instance destroying UK financial services firms is fine if done “in the interests of consumer” and what could be more in their ‘interests’ than getting money back on a contract they willingly (and legally) signed ten years ago?

And that’s why choice and consumer outcomes are being lost in box ticking and adverts of fluffy kittens, sunsets on beaches and the like. Just look at the UK ISA advertisements, do they tell you anything? Beyond heavy hints at nirvana with no work.

HUNT’S LAST HURRAH

The budget? Well, it is so dull, you feel it is simply what the HMRC nerds wanted. More complexity, a few free hits (non doms), more CGT breaks for landlords, for the rentiers not the creators, less employee NI, but no change to employer NI, that actual tax on jobs remains as harsh as ever.

We are well into Q1 now, so I guess the intriguing thing is more this firm Treasury conviction, adopted by the OBR, that inflation will fall towards 2% in Q2. Given their prior errors, that is very bullish, and does not support base rates at 5.25%, frankly not even at 3.25%.

It is all circular, despite commentators’ child-like obsession with margins for error. If inflation stays high, tax raised stays higher, covering higher public sector spend. So low inflation is (oddly) a cautious model prediction.

The market does not believe it. Nor do we. Not quite chapeau consumption time, but I don’t see 2% this year. I am not sure where this recession is, but not in any of the streets I walk down.

If interest rates are really about to fall off a cliff, the FTSE looks oddly stuck, miles behind the US indices, and sterling also looks curiously strong. If saving rates are about to be pummelled, the yield stocks that fill the FTSE will suddenly look very cheap. Which suggests the markets are not buying it, not yet.

A 500-point rally might even be plausible, if the OBR is right, but it is not, and talk of headroom is nonsense. This remains an expansionist fiscal mind set, but of quite limited duration, hence the market caution.

Elsewhere we are in ‘riding-the-tiger’ time: if you are onboard, how and when do you get off it?


DREAMERS

What would Trump’s high tariff isolationist world look like? What would the mirror image be in Xi’s China? Not now, not next week, but rolling into the next decade.

And whatever portfolio theory says, and whatever the optimistic investor believes, 80% of my own portfolio is flotsam, drifting up and down on Pacific tides. Stocks I both like and which have compounded over decades are remarkably few. Oh, and a brief word on African housing.

GOING IT ALONE

But first, to give it the grand name, autarchy, or self-sufficiency. A bit of a joke - the Soviet Union tried it, Iran tries it, China famously only revived after ditching it.

But it is back in fashion, and not just in strange places. The EU industrial and agricultural policy is starting to look like a version; beyond their four walls they need carbon and chemicals, but within them they don’t, nor will they allow imports of them (or products including them). Quite fantastic.

Trump is on his 60% tariffs line. Xi clearly wants to cut off foreign capital, as it arrives infected with democracy and transparency, and the associated foreign reporting or verification.

So, could they? Yes, the US could - it is big enough, can do most things, and largely trades internally. While at least in Trump’s imagination the commercial borders are sealed, and so enforceable.

What goes wrong? Well at some, quite distant, point people stop expecting to trade with the US. So, at its most extreme, if China can’t sell to the US, it won’t buy from them either. But that is decades away, most Chinese production can probably take a 300% tariff, and still sell at a profit.

The flip side of the tariff is the huge salary for a barista, or a trucker. The latter is not so far away. Prices of domestic US production must rise, to allow the blue-collar Mid-West to rejuvenate. US consumers of course (including that barista) will pay vastly more for US goods, or will get hit with the import tariff; this of course is a tax on them.

Source: Statista

What about Xi? Well again it is possible - that’s how China ran for much of his life, with a lot of new infrastructure, industrialization, since installed. He can do it all again. There, unlike in the US, the issue is capital. As a big net exporter, an area that will itself be under pressure, money will be harder to find; it already is.

 

THE NIGHTMARE

Countries that go through this closing cycle typically also do default (as the Soviets did, as US (and UK) railways did,). Folly, but it can be done.

The US has been going down this route since Obama, Trump talked a lot about it, but Biden too sees the resulting wage inflation as a good thing. So, it is the next US President’s policy either way.

Obama was keen on hitting capital markets (FATCA was and remains both a non-tariff barrier (I am being polite here) and a tariff on external capital) and I suspect a Biden administration must do the same, to balance the books.

While Xi never really left protectionism, WTO and GATT were mainly honoured in the breach.

And Europe? There is quite a strong strategic need to expand to the East, although as that goes through (and we are talking the mid 2030’s here) Ukrainian farmers, like Polish farmers today, will buckle under the rules; it barely matters about the Donbas, the EU will shut those heavy industries down too.

So, I think autarchy can work for all three, it will support a large uncompetitive labour force, and consumer choice will vanish. In many cases there will be lower quality and high prices. All three will attack (or in some cases keep attacking) capital flows.

And in the end, the entrepots will survive, those not in any such block, like the UAE or Singapore today, Amsterdam in the 17th Century, Yemen under the Romans and Victorian Britain.

The winners will be flexible, a tad amoral, assertive, in fluid alliances, but reliant on gold not steel to survive. And they will suck in entrepreneurial talent too. At a strategic level, that feels the place to be looking. Although buying uncompetitive heavy industries before their brief period of tariff induced profitability, has a short-term allure.

 

DOGS OR GREYHOUNDS ?

The ludicrous halving of CGT allowances, based on some fantasy “yield” number from the equally ludicrous HMRC, via the OBR, means once again the tiresome process of harvesting losses is upon us. No longer can they sit unloved at the back, snoozing; out they must come.

And what a tale of dross they reveal, and scattered amongst them so many once “good ideas” and busted yield stocks. Well, it sticks in the throat, but perhaps sticking it in a US wonder stock for six months is better?

Of course, if I knew when I acquired them that the FTSE was moribund for two decades, I would never have bothered. Seems it is time to simplify.

 

COLLATERAL

And lastly African housing. It was one of Gordon Brown’s (and the PRA’s) great achievements to get UK banks out of overseas assets, far too volatile, currency? foreigners?- Who needs them? Bring it all home and inflate the UK housing market with safe, cheap, mortgages.

So, Citizens went, Barclays were hounded out of South Africa, and so on – although their post-sale performance has really not been great either. Africa now just does not have proper mortgage financing for the vast bulk of the population. This is at a level I had failed to fully comprehend.

You think that despite everything, Africa must have got better. But no housing, so less health, less stability, no financial security. Safe recycling of profits in the continent is still hard. Aid can’t create institutional reform, but that’s the need.

If you look for the breakout into developed status, it starts there.

 

 

 

 


Skipped - what will 2024 look like?

May I say we told you so? In "Skipping Along" before the summer break we called the end to rate rises, and by the November Fed meeting, we were well on board for a "rip your face off" rally. Feeling ripped? Anyone coming to the equity party in December, has just not been paying attention.

And our powerful MomentuM model had investors buying Japan and European Indices LAST December, so they have milked that entire rally. It also signaled buying back into the NASDAQ from May, arguably a bit late, but still very effective.

Jerome Powell said nothing new this week, and the New Year still looks bright for the beaten-up stocks, regions and sectors, as rates decline. I suspect prospects for the perennial winners to keep on winning are not too bad. Although economic growth will suffer (and so will earnings), but valuations still have some space to catch up amongst a lot of this year's losers, as discount rates keep swinging lower and bond yields dwindle.

 

A RED CHRISTMAS – Looking forward a year.

A year ahead, politics looks more interesting: so, what will the newly elected British House of Commons do next Christmas? What are the choices and likely outcomes?

The new Labour prime minister will care relatively little about political opponents, and quite a lot about holding party discipline.

Nor, we are told, will he seek early solutions to some of the more intractable constitutional problems (Second Chamber, Proportional Representation, Party Funding etc.), as based on his predecessor's experience, that just wastes precious time.

For all that, when it comes, his manifesto will (at last you may say) be festooned in clear deliverables, a plan to govern, at least for the next year.   While Rachel Reeves is influential, the drive will be legislative, not economic. But as ever The Chancellor will have to then deliver the possible.

 

A DOLLOP OF BORROWING

So, more debt, extra tax, spending cuts are the options facing her, to fund that manifesto along with a cursory fig leaf for growth. The latter is needed (like the absurd Tory public spending targets) to get the Office for Budget Responsibility on side. Albeit responsibility is what you take, whereas the OBR offer simply a comptometer's sign off on specious forecasts.

For all that the Treasury thinks Gilt markets pay attention to the OBR, although I doubt it. So very early on, the rather too stringent self-imposed spending and funding restraints the Tories have adopted, will be quietly reconfigured. The rise again of a few PFI like schemes to keep stuff off the books is likely; Labour does not do fiscal hawks.

Falling interest rates and lower indexation provide small windfalls, and binning the 'irresponsible' Tory promises of tax cuts, won't hurt the numbers either. So yes, more debt, low tens of billions at least will be used.

 

A SPLASH OF TAX

What of tax? Can the pips be made to squeak. Yes, again, I am sure they will be, although not really on income tax, and I think for employed staff not on NI either. Labour has no love of the entrepreneur, who is too poor to hire lobbyists or to make donations. So, a bit more squeezed there off the self-employed and small business owners.

I expect a big hike in fuel tax, especially petrol and aviation fuel, under a green cloak, generating another £10 billion. Consumption taxes remain rewarding: VAT rates, thresholds, and exemptions are all likely targets. And if they are inflationary, just adjust them away in your numbers. Nothing new – claiming them to be a 'one off' (of course).

UK property taxes are low in the South East, due to a long-standing failure to re-rate, so there is some scope there. With more housing coming, this will likely be punitive. But there are other enduring loopholes, that make little sense: REITs, Limited Liability Partnerships, a lot of EIS, VCT, Freeport stuff, albeit none of that is big ticket. I guess some simple populist tariffs may arrive as well. Labour is at heart protectionist.

All in all, I expect Labour to get enough from extra debt and taxation to provide a budget to tackle (rather than just top up deficits in the funding of) some long-standing reforms. I'd also expect seizures of assets. The Treasury seems to have a taste for balancing the books illegally, and there is little judicial protection.

 

PRESENTS FOR SOME

I don't expect infrastructure or defense budgets to be much loved – that's some of the cuts. The undoubted green spend will likely benefit (or keep on benefiting) China's manufacturers, more than the UK, but do still expect energy prices to go on up. They are the modern sin tax.

But higher tax, debt and spending can be pretty good for the economy, as Biden has shown, it all depends on how long you can get others to fund you for, and at what price.

Much as I am sure Labour don't want to crash the pound, they normally eventually find a way to do so, and for all my glib assumptions, they will be starting far closer to the edge than most new governments, for some while.

THE HANGOVER

How useful is that analysis? Well don't expect the FTSE to collapse, this will be a spending regime, but do expect stock specific damage, although arguably a lot of that is in the price of impacted sectors, or indeed the long standing (and ongoing) flight from UK equities overall.

The FTSE is mired in a twenty-year stagnation, from 7,000 in 2000 to well, 7,000 now, although not to altogether discount the medium-term Tory inspired rally. Note what Labour, even Blairite Labour, gives you.

From: Tradingeconomics

 

On the other hand, sitting, duck-like, waiting to be hit, or worse buying into vulnerable areas, feels quite high risk.

The election outcome is (and has been for a while) clear. Nor is this a safe European coalition of the sane and less sane.  It will be red through and through.

Given so many other options, and that some of the pain will be direct on pensions and property, it seems a good time to start planning on the investment side.

The MP's pension fund invests only 1.7% in UK listed equity. Do they know something?

Have a magnificent Christmas and thank you for reading.

 

We will be back on January 14th.

 

 

Charles Gillams

17-12-2023


By their works . . .

Well, the works this week: a pensive Jerome Powell does nothing, a reckless Andrew Bailey does nothing, Canada joins Biden in picking fights, and the bulk of most equity markets are stuck, going nowhere.

NO MORE US RISES

So, the apparently knowledgeable financial press said that Powell predicts rate rises? He said nothing of the sort of course. True the other members of the FOMC dot plots were in aggregate higher than the current rate, but by a fraction, it is like the average family being 2.4 children, meaning everyone, in the absence of King Solomon, has three children. No, it does not, it means on average there are no more rate rises.

So, Powell has stopped the runaway train, by lighting red flares in front of it and throwing railway sleepers across the track. Job done. Inflation is way below base rates. Bailey has asked nicely and tried to lasso the inflation express from half a mile down the track - won’t work. Inflation above base rates is misery, inflation below base rates is time to loosen.

Powell did start rambling, describing parts of the economy with “by their works ye shall know them” but decided that was all a bit erudite, before he had even finished the thought. He then reverted to the old saw, “forecasters are a humble lot, (with much to be humble about)”. Presumably that is unlike Central Bankers? I still think that judging them by their works makes sense.

But Powell is happy: the Q&A session threw him a litany of gloom, government shut down, students having to repay debt, auto plant shut downs, but no, all is fine.

The core US consumer and therefore the US economy, is in a good place was his verdict.

BAILEY DITHERS

Bailey seems to like to crash the pound every October, which is not good for inflation, just as picking fights globally is not good for oil prices. And it is also bad for inflation.

From This Website

And either the UK government will cave in to public sector strikes or productivity will keep falling due to said strikes. Neither are much good for the economy. Nor is it good for the markets: in performance terms, the UK remains the sick man of Europe, amongst major markets.

THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN RIDE ON

I was at the annual Quality Growth conference in London again, a stock picker’s feast as usual. It seems that if enough stock pickers can agree on the menu, as the dominant prevailing theory of investments, they will drive the prices of their favoured stocks ever higher. Which they do, it seems. This is helped by the ‘over the long run valuations don’t matter’ line, pushed hard by Baillie Gifford (amongst others). You might recall my article on Scottish Mortgage a while back.

And of course, as we know from both index and momentum investing, once something starts to move in a flat market, it keeps moving.

But that leaves the vast bulk of quoted stocks flat or down on the year, which makes some sense. When rates rise, bonds are substituted for stocks. The last two quarters in particular have been flat to soft, and while some of these stocks may have hit a bottom, it is still very hard to tell.

The only good news for UK investors is that Andrew Bailey has ensured their overseas (especially US) stocks have a nice currency tailwind.

MADE IN JAPAN

Meanwhile from Comgest there’s a radically different view of Japan. The equity rally there has been fantastic, but it is not the typical exporter boom of a weak yen, in their view, but more about bank stocks soaring on the expectation of the end of Central Bank rate control. This allows their vast balance sheets to earn a real return, at last. This is quite a departure from the general explanations about “this is Japan’s time”. That one has caught me out far too often, but explains the horror show from respected funds like Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon - small and illiquid is just nasty everywhere.

So, although the global rally looks to be strong, it is terribly narrow, and built on different foundations in different places. Or more positively, a broad advance awaits the first rate cuts, either from triumph (US) having controlled inflation or disaster (Europe) having created a recession and left inflation out of control. Either route to rate cuts wins, it seems.

GLASSHOUSES AND THROWING STONES

Oddly, I feel the Canadian spat with India is really quite serious, the tendency of rich Northern countries to preach, in this case standing very carefully behind the only global superpower’s shoulder, really annoys the global South. It has been going on for centuries and is at heart simply the old colonial mindset.

India’s continuing reaction may well portray the accuracy (or otherwise) of the allegations, as on the face of it this is deeply insulting to the world’s largest country, and one that has tiptoed down the line between offending the West and creating starvation and destitution for millions in the South.

I don’t believe it - murdering virtuous plumbers in Canada over the Punjab, which has long ceased to be a primary source of domestic concern, is plain weird.

All things are possible, and India cares far more about Kashmiri terrorism (for instance), but if it is false, expect a sizable slap to Canadian interests, and more accommodation for Putin.

After all, if you are treated as if you are behaving like Putin, why would you ostracize him?