WHEN WILL MARKETS RESPOND? Everything is in the end politics; it just takes a long route on occasion and rather like a frog in water, markets take time to realize that the pleasant feeling of warmth is a prelude to being boiled alive. We are well into the boiling phase, but how long before it… Continue reading A HARD RAIN
UK elections are over – and the US employment numbers are out. What will labour now do, and what is the likelihood that the US market is overvalued? A fortnightly review by Charles Gillams, Monogram Investment Management Ltd.
First published on 20 December 2020 A strange old year winds down, with proof once more of the exceptional power of suggestion and the great strength of cohesion. Tired Markets, Bullish Investors So what now? Clearly markets are tired, we have the odd position that investors are almost universally bullish on next year, that fund… Continue reading What doesn’t sink me makes me stronger
First posted on 10th January 2021 Attempting to comment on the last few weeks seems largely futile, save perhaps for the apocryphal remark attributed to Chinese premier Chou En Lai, that ‘it is too early to tell’, when asked about the impact of the French Revolution. We suspect the markets are a little too relaxed… Continue reading MUST THE POOR BE CLEAN?
First posted on 7th February 2021 US Markets: The ‘no-Trump’ response We may learn a little about markets from the curious absence of Trump. We had been confidently told that without him the US stock markets would fold, and as US markets collapse, these days so do global ones. Indeed, not just relying on the… Continue reading Some Big Calls
First Posted on 7th March 2021 WHY SYSTEMS FAIL, AND IT IS REALLY NOT ABOUT MONEY A winter lockdown forces us all to examine our domestic interiors, with in my case perhaps a superfluity of paper, which led me to “Fiasco”, by Thomas E. Ricks. It is a seminal description of how complex systems create… Continue reading Fiasco
First posted 21st March 2021 Interesting times. Bond markets are out of the cage, off the deck, ready to rumble. This week feels like another one of those big calls that investors have faced over the last year, and in many ways much less obvious. Forget the chatter, it is the bond markets that are… Continue reading Rising Tides